Special Features
Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday. This will support the generation of strong showers and thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds through Friday. The heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Flooding is also possible in areas of Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. According to the most recent models, Tue afternoon and Thu afternoon will be the days with the most significant precipitation over north-central Dominican Republic and NE Haiti. There are also indications that significant rainfall could occur over eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands where abundant moisture will remain in place. Please refer to products from your local weather service for more information.
Tropical Waves
The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 11N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.
The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection remains minimal.
The axis of another Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 12N southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly behind the wave axis covering the waters from 05N to 10N between 40W and 50W, and from 06N to 12N between 50W and 52W.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 19N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over eastern Dominican Republic and western Venezuela.
The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 21N southward, and is quasi-stationary due to interaction with an upper-level trough. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis over the SW Caribbean, and this convective activity is affecting the coasts of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W then continues westward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 06N35W, then from 06N37W to 06N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 08N between 24W and 31W, and from 05N to 09N between 40W and 50W.
Gulf Of Mexico
A surface ridge prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail W of 90W, with light to gentle winds E of 90W. Seas W of 90W are in the 4-6 ft range and 2-3 ft E of 90W Haze due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico continues across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days. This pattern will support generally moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf. By Thu, the ridge will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 4 nm at times, mainly over the western half of the Gulf.
Caribbean Sea
Please read the Special Features section above for information on a heavy rainfall event.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are noted E of 71W. Moderate winds are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range W of 71W.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the east- central Caribbean through early Tue, with seas building to near 8 ft. A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the SW Caribbean will continue to support active thunderstorms across north-central portions through Tue. As this feature moves E-NE across the Atlantic, associated weather will shift across the NE Caribbean Tue evening through Thu. Fresh trade winds will return to southeast portions of the basin Thu evening through early Sat.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N54W then becomes stationary along 26N to the northern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are N of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of the stationary front to neat 20N. Farther east, high pressure prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 27N34W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere. S of 20N, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Aside from seas mentioned above, seas of 3-6 ft prevail.
For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front will meander and weaken into a surface trough tonight. A deep- layered upper trough across the W Atlantic and into the SW Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms E of 70W tonight that will shift E and NE Tue through Thu. The interaction of the upper trough and the stationary front is expected to lead to elongated surface low pressure across NE portions on Tue, and shift NE and out of the area on Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast ahead of this trough/low as it move across these waters. Weak high pressure will begin to build across the basin Wed then shift slowly E-NE Thu through Sat.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al
